Mayoral candidate Brad Bradford has proposed replacing hundreds of millions of dollars in operating-to-capital transfers with additional borrowing, alongside a limit to property tax increases.
This could create a serious financial squeeze. If the City cannot borrow enough to replace the funding Bradford proposes to eliminate, it will either have to find the money elsewhere or reduce and delay major infrastructure improvements and maintenance. In short, it would mean a state-of good-repair backlog that continues to balloon. It would mean more slow zones. It would mean that major infrastructure projects like the Scarborough East LRT would never get built. It would mean that upgrades necessary for improved transit signal priority would not happen. It would mean a reduction in service and increases in fares, leading towards what is generally known as a transit death spiral.
Toronto has already experienced the consequences of allowing funding pressures to accumulate. We cannot go back to an overcrowded system facing service cuts and unfunded maintenance.
This will severely impact millions of riders throughout the city.
The TTC needs long-term investment to continue improving reliability. The decisions made over the next four years are existential to the future of Toronto Transit.
Toronto has spent years dealing with the consequences of underfunded public transit. Aging infrastructure, delayed repairs and subway slow zones have all placed pressure on a system that millions of Torontonians rely on. These problems cannot be fixed overnight and require sustained investment in the workers, vehicles, tracks and infrastructure that keep transit moving.
During John Tory’s time as mayor, keeping property tax increases low was a central priority. But that came at the cost of public transit. The costs of operating and maintaining the TTC continued to grow. Riders experienced service reductions, fare increases, overcrowding, while the general state-of-good-repair was severely underfunded and deferred, resulting in the backlog of reduced speed zones we see today.
Today, the TTC still needs billions of dollars in additional investment. With Toronto facing another debate about taxes, borrowing and infrastructure spending, the lessons of that period are especially relevant.
Bradford/Tory, same old story?
The warning signs were visible early in Tory’s mayoralty. In 2016 TTCriders documented overcrowding on 43 TTC routes, including all nine regular streetcar routes and 34 bus routes.
There were 99 different time periods when crowding exceeded the TTC’s own standards, but service didn’t increase to solve that overcrowding. In fact, many routes faced service reductions.
On the 43 Kennedy, midday buses went from arriving every 10 minutes to every 15. Routes including the 7 Bathurst, 11 Bayview and 29 Dufferin also experienced reductions despite regular overcrowding.
By early 2017, 64 TTC routes were overcrowded, had experienced service reductions, or both. In 2023, Tory’s final budget included even more reductions to TTC service and increased transit fares.
The TTC operated approximately the same number of vehicle kilometres in 2023 as it had in 2014, despite a surge in population and an expanded transit network. Yes, the pandemic contributed to that, but overcrowding and operating funding challenges were already evident years before COVID-19.
Meanwhile, the TTC’s infrastructure funding problem was becoming serious. In that same 2023 budget, the state-of-good-repair backlog was projected to balloon to over $6 billion by 2032. This shows what happens when the cost of delivering transit continues to rise while funding struggles to keep pace.
Conservatives cut. And Bradford recently told the CBC that he intends to be the most conservative government on the continent. A continent that includes Danielle Smith and Donald Trump.
TTC Improvements Under Chow
Over the past three years, Toronto has made important new commitments to transit investment.
Under Mayor Olivia Chow, the 2025 TTC capital budget included nearly $4.9 billion in additional funding for previously unfunded state-of-good-repair projects. This reduced the backlog by nearly 50%. A big chunk of that backlog was through Chow finally securing new subway cars for Line 2. An example of her ability to work with both the federal and provincial governments to secure major projects for the city.
Even with that, the backlog is still substantial, however, and even more desperately needed projects are still unfunded. That’s why the City’s approach to how they pay for things is so crucial to the state of our public transit.
If you’ll indulge in a bit of a nerdy deep dive, Toronto currently pays for capital projects through a combination of government contributions, borrowing, and money collected through annual revenues. The latter is known as Capital from Current funding. Instead of borrowing the entire cost of an infrastructure, the City uses some of its existing revenue to pay directly for it. Think about it like a down payment on a house. The more you put in at the start, the lower your mortgage will be, and the better your interest rates.
It’s also important because the City can’t just borrow with impunity, there’s an actual policy in place that only 15% of our budget can go towards “debt-servicing.” Makes sense, if your entire revenue is focused on paying off interest payments, you definitely won’t be able to afford running transit.
The City’s 2026 Budget Summary projects that debt-servicing costs will reach 14.9% by 2035. Pretty damn close to that 15% limit!
Bradford also proposes reducing some of that debt by turning Toronto Water into a separate corporation, with several people saying this is the first step towards privatizing our water system, including former Mayor David Miller.
Every additional dollar spent on servicing debt (i.e. paying interest payments) is an additional dollar that can’t be spent on a service that Torontonians rely on like transit.
What’s Next?
The TTC’s financial challenges are massive. Thankfully, we have made progress addressing them over the past three years, but even after those recent investments we still need substantial investment in the coming decades.
The next mayor will need to solve this problem, regardless of who it is. And the commitments they make during this election need to be scrutinized.
In TTCriders 2026 Municipal Election Candidate Survey, candidates were asked about priorities including eliminating subway slow zones, speeding up our streetcars, improving accessibility and continuing to make transit affordable.
Mayor Chow responded to our survey and answered every question with a ‘yes.’
Brad Bradford did not respond.
Toronto's next mayor will face decisions about how to finance essential TTC repairs, maintain service and deliver improvements that riders have been waiting years to see.
The record of the Tory years shows why these decisions deserve close scrutiny. Transit funding pressures do not disappear when budgets are balanced or tax increases are limited. They remain until governments commit the resources necessary to address them.
Toronto needs a long-term plan to fund reliable transit. Riders deserve to know how the next mayor intends to deliver it.