Report: Malvern, Lawrence Heights, and Rexdale would be most impacted by potential restrictions to door-to-door Wheel-Trans service

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Report Summary  

According to data obtained through a Freedom of Information (FOI) request by transit advocacy organization TTCriders, restricting Wheel-Trans users from full door-to-door service would affect more residents in Toronto suburbs where more low-income, racialized riders live.

The data also raises questions about figures the TTC has used to justify the new service delivery model.

TTCriders analyzed nearly 3 years worth of Wheel-Trans users’ trips using the “Family of Services” (FOS) service delivery model, which are offered to users who have been screened out of “Unconditional” door-to-door Wheel-Trans eligibility. Instead of being offered door-to-door trips, “Conditional” users are offered trips that involve taking conventional TTC buses, streetcars or subways for all or part of their trips. 

People with disabilities have criticized the “Family of Services” program because the TTC is not fully accessible and because it makes trips significantly longer and less safe, dubbing the FOS program “Forced Onto Subway.” Taking “Family of Services” trips is currently optional, but the TTC intends to make the program mandatory for “Conditional” users to cut costs. 

Three Toronto neighbourhoods – Malvern, Lawrence Heights, and Rexdale – represent 12.4 percent of all “Family of Services” trips in the dataset, despite making up only 3.9 percent of the population. The Toronto neighbourhoods with the highest share of FOS trips have a high proportion of racialized and low-income residents. 

The three areas (Forward Sortation Areas) with the highest share of Family of Services trips are M1B, M6A, and M9W: 

• M1B includes Malvern and Malvern West in Scarborough.
• M6A includes Lawrence Heights, a neighbourhood with many Toronto Community Housing properties. 
• M9W includes Rexdale and Humber West in Etobicoke.

The two areas (Forward Sortation Areas) with the highest number of rides per capita are M6A in North York and M4N in North Toronto: 

• M6A includes Lawrence Heights, a neighbourhood with many Toronto Community Housing properties. 
• M4N is home to Sunnybrook Hospital and Health Sciences Centre.

TTCriders received postal code data from the TTC for 19,746 Wheel-Trans “Family of Services” (FOS) trips that were scheduled between December 2021 to August 2024. The TTC's 5-Year Accessibility Plan reports a significantly higher number of “Family of Services” trips during the same period, because it conflates voluntary use of the TTC’s conventional system with Wheel-Trans trips that require riders to use the conventional TTC as part of their Wheel-Trans trip. 

COMPARISON TABLE 

The 2024-2028 5-Year Accessibility Plan states that their ridership and cost avoidance estimate “is based on Family of Services rides, which used a combination of Wheel-Trans and accessible-conventional services for a rider to reach their destination as well as an estimate of rides taken entirely on the accessible-conventional system by Wheel-Trans customers.” The report does not include details of how the estimate of voluntary trips taken on the conventional system was made.

This conflation misrepresents the estimated cost avoidance and rationale for implementing a policy of mandatory “Family of Services” trip booking, which would restrict Wheel-Trans users’ ability to book door-to-door Wheel-Trans trips when their conditions are not present. 

Background 

The “Family of Services” (FOS) service model 

The Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act (AODA) will come into effect on January 1, 2025, expanding the definition of disability and increasing the number of people eligible for paratransit service. 

As a result of the expected increase in Wheel-Trans users, the TTC is planning to implement a new service delivery model termed the “Family of Services,” which aims to cut the Wheel-Trans budget by reducing the average number of kilometres travelled. The TTC’s Wheel-Trans 10-Year Strategy set an arbitrary “diversion target” to shift 50% of Wheel-Trans trips from full door-to-door service by 2025 and shift them onto conventional buses, streetcars or subways for all or part of their trips. 

Wheel-Trans users who apply after 2017 are placed into three eligibility categories: Temporary (door-to-door trips for a limited time), Unconditional (door-to-door trips), and Conditional (trips that involve a mix of Wheel-Trans and conventional TTC service). Wheel-Trans users who applied before 2017 are being asked to re-register; approximately 5,000 Wheel-Trans users have not yet re-registered, as of November 2024. 

If the “Family of Services” model becomes mandatory, “Conditional” users will lose their ability to book door-to-door Wheel-Trans trips, unless specific “conditions” are present. Example conditions include only being able to book door-to-door trips during rush hour or during winter. 

A 2017 Project Charter document obtained by TTCriders through a Freedom of Information request identifies a “risk” that Wheel-Trans users will be reluctant to book Family of Services trips, which will “[impede] achievement of target,” and proposes to “make it mandatory for conditional customers to schedule FOS trips whenever possible” [emphasis added]. 

The TTC’s 2024-2028 5-Year Accessibility Plan states that “it has yet to be determined if mandatory FOS travel for conditional customers, when none of their conditions are present, will be implemented.” While Family of Services trips are voluntary at this time, some Wheel-Trans users are not aware that they currently have the choice to refuse the FOS trips they are offered.

Financial barriers may prevent Wheel-Trans users from appealing the eligibility category they are assigned. Users have 90 days from the date of their eligibility decision to submit an appeal, during which time appellants organize appointments with specialists, potentially pay for a new doctor’s note, and potentially organize additional attendant support.

If the Family of Services model becomes mandatory, “Conditional” users will only be able to book door-to-door Wheel-Trans rides if some of their “conditions” are present. The following is a selected list of “conditions” that conditional Wheel-Trans users may get assigned: 

• Travelling Alone - "Customer is able to travel on the TTC when they have a support person with them. If they are travelling alone, they may need Wheel-Trans for that trip."
• Darkness - "Customer is able to travel on TTC during daylight hours. If it is dark, they may need Wheel-Trans for that trip." 
• Rush Hour AM - "Customer is able to take the TTC during off-peak hours. If the trip is during the AM rush hour, they may need Wheel-Trans for that trip." 
• Rush Hour PM - "Customer is able to take the TTC during off-peak hours. If the trip is during the PM rush hour, they may need Wheel-Trans for that trip."
• Winter WT Service Only - "Customer is able to take the TTC during the summer months. If it is during the winter, they may need Wheel-Trans for that trip."

Although "Conditional" Wheel-Trans users are being scheduled to take conventional TTC during off-peak hours, there is less room on the bus, streetcar, or subway for wheelchair users during off-peak hours because the 2023 TTC Operating Budget changed the crowding standard from the TTC’s official Service Standards. The TTC’s loading standard, which is applied as an average and calculated based on the busiest hour of the service period, is now based on “standing room only” at all times of day.  

“Family of Services” users face longer waits for transit, longer trip times, and risks to safety on overcrowded TTC buses and trains. They also risk being stranded if they miss their pick-up point in the middle of a FOS trip. The following images are real trip examples from a Wheel-Trans user. 

People with disabilities have criticized the “Family of Services” program because the TTC is not fully accessible and because it makes trips significantly longer and less safe, dubbing the FOS program “Forced Onto Subway.” Taking “Family of Services” trips is currently optional, but the TTC intends to make the program mandatory for “Conditional” users to cut costs. 

Public consultations held in April 2024 found that: 

• 39% of Wheel-Trans users said they would never use the Family of Services.
• 61% of Wheel-Trans users felt that the TTC did not meet their accessibility requirements. 
• 60% feel that crowding is an issue that affects customers with disabilities. 

Findings: Malvern, Lawrence Heights, and Rexdale have highest share of “Family of Services” trips

TTCriders obtained postal code data from the TTC on “Family of Services” (FOS) usage from December 2021 to August 2024 via a Freedom of Information request, allowing us to map the geographic distribution of trips by Forward-Sortation Area (FSA). 

To understand the geography of FOS use, we analyzed data for 19,746 trips taken between 2021 and 2024. Users began these trips in 2,802 different postal codes and traveled to almost 3,200 different postal codes. We had requested trip data from 2017, but the Wheel-Trans booking system does not retain information that far back. The chart below demonstrates the number of trips per year from the data we obtained via FOI.  

The map below visualizes the number of FOS trips that started or ended per 1,000 people in a given area. The map shows forward-sortation areas (FSA), which are geographic units based on the first three digits of a postal code. In all, these FSAs were home to almost 3.3 million people in 2021, according to the 2021 Census.

TTCriders considered going to a 6-digit level, but could have only shown points on a map (coordinates of a postal code), because Canada Post owns the proprietary dataset that visualizes the polygons. As well, due to population density, points on a map gave a false impression that most trips were originating and ending downtown because they did not communicate trip frequency.

The corresponding scatter plot below compares the share of an FSA’s population to the share of trips taken in that FSA. FSAs above the trendline (in blue) represent areas where there were many more trips taken than would be expected given that area’s population. For example, M1B represented 4.3 percent of all trips taken despite being home to only 2.0 percent of the population of the FSAs covered. In contrast, FSAs below the reference line (in yellow) are those areas where there were relatively fewer FOS trips than one might expect given the area's population.

The areas with the highest share of FOS trips are M1B (includes Malvern), M9W (includes Rexdale/Humber West), and M6A (includes Lawrence Heights). The areas where the highest share of Wheel-Trans are taken overlay with the most transit-dependent, lower-income, and racialized areas of Toronto, and areas where transit service is less frequent.

Racially Diverse Communities

Per 2021 Census Data, 90% of Malvern’s population is racialized. In Rexdale and Humber West/Clairville, 67% of the population is racialized. Racialized people make up 55% of Toronto’s overall population. Toronto’s most racially diverse communities in Etobicoke and Scarborough are overrepresented in the number of FOS trips taken.

Low-Income Communities

Lawrence Heights is home to a number of Toronto Community Housing properties. 28% of renters in Englemount-Lawrence (in M6A) live in subsidized housing; 21% in Rexdale-Kipling (in M9W). Areas with the highest share of FOS trips are also in Scarborough and Northern Etobicoke, where there is a high concentration of lower-income neighbourhoods and poverty.

Transit Dependent Communities

In neighbourhoods including Lawrence Heights, 29-34% of commuters took public transit in 2021, above the citywide average of 26%. 

Communities with Infrequent and Inaccessible Transit

Bus routes in Scarborough and North Etobicoke are overrepresented in overcrowding, especially outside rush hours including routes on Kipling, Sheppard and Lawrence inside areas overrepresented in share of FOS trips (see TTC-produced graphic below). Infrequent, inaccessible and overcrowded transit makes it difficult for seniors and people with disabilities to use the conventional TTC as part of their FOS trip.

In Malvern, commuters already face the lengthiest commute times in the city, with up to 18% of trips taking over an hour; 1.5 times the citywide average commute. Commuters in Rexdale and Humber West/Clairville also face above average commute times. The “Family of Services” lengthens trip times for Wheel-Trans users because multiple transfers are required.

Image source: TTC midday overcrowding heat map source via TTC staff report, February 2024.

Findings: Justification for making “Family of Services” mandatory based on conflating two types of data

COMPARISON TABLE

The chart below from the TTC's 2024-2028 5-Year Accessibility Plan calculates cost avoidance based on “Customers (%) reported using accessible conventional network [Trip Diversion Survey].” During April 2024 public consultations about the Family of Services, TTC staff explained that these figures are based on surveys with Wheel-Trans users conducted by Forum Research about their use of the conventional TTC system. Further information about the Trip Diversion Survey, the frequency of user surveys, or how estimates are made based on the survey data is not included in the 5-Year Accessibility Plan.   

The 2024-2028 5-Year Accessibility Plan states that the $123.19 million cost avoidance estimate “is based on Family of Services rides, which used a combination of Wheel-Trans and accessible-conventional services for a rider to reach their destination as well as an estimate of rides taken entirely on the accessible-conventional system by Wheel-Trans customers.”

In describing both types of trips as “Family of Services,” the chart below and the 5-Year Accessibility Plan conflate Wheel-Trans users’ voluntary use of conventional TTC with scheduled trips that require riders to use a mix of Wheel-Trans vehicles and the conventional system. 

This risks misrepresenting the estimated cost avoidance and rationale for requiring Wheel-Trans users to accept scheduled “Family of Services” trips. Currently, Wheel-Trans users may refuse scheduled “Family of Services” trips that include a mix of conventional TTC and door-to-door Wheel-Trans service, but the 5-Year Accessibility Plan notes that: “it has yet to be determined if mandatory FOS travel for conditional customers, when none of their conditions are present, will be implemented.”

A 2017 Project Charter document obtained by TTCriders through a Freedom of Information request identifies a “risk” that Wheel-Trans users will be reluctant to book Family of Services trips, which will “[impede] achievement of target,” and proposes to “make it mandatory for conditional customers to schedule FOS trips whenever possible” [emphasis added]. 

In contrast, TTC staff published a slidedeck in September 2023, which estimated the "cost avoidance" of making the Family of Services delivery model mandatory in 2025 at $5.3 million (see chart below). Yet the 2024-2028 5-Year TTC Accessibility Plan does not include this figure, or any other estimates that specifically calculate the cost avoidance of making “Family of Services” Wheel-Trans trips mandatory.  

For reference, the estimated $5.3 million savings from Wheel-Trans FOS trips becoming mandatory is only 0.2% of the TTC’s $2.57 billion 2024 Operating Budget, yet would result in up to 50% of Wheel-Trans users losing access to door-to-door service. Furthermore, these cost estimations do not include increased transit service to accommodate more riders using the conventional system, or address issues of overcrowding during off-peak periods. 

Conclusions

What might explain the geographic distribution of FOS trips?

Income may play a role because users cannot afford to use taxis or rideshare platforms as alternatives to Wheel-Trans trips. Income, English literacy, and digital literacy may influence which Wheel-Trans users choose to appeal their “Conditional” status. People may not know that they are able to appeal their status, or may lack the financial resources to go through with an appeal. 

Higher rates of FOS trips may also point to a lack of awareness among Wheel-Trans users that they can refuse “Family of Services” trips because the service delivery model is not yet mandatory. It is also possible that the geographic distribution of FOS trips is similar to the distribution of Wheel-Trans trips.

Making "Family of Services" mandatory will disproportionately harm racialized, low-income residents

The current share of “Family of Services” trips is disproportionately in racialized and low-income neighbourhoods. Areas of Toronto with inaccessible and inadequate transit service are similarly overrepresented.

Restricting access to door-to-door Wheel-Trans trips by making the “Family of Services” service delivery model mandatory will have a disproportionate impact on transit access in racialized, low-income Toronto suburbs like Rexdale and Malvern where transit access is already poor.

Justification for making “Family of Services” mandatory based on conflating two types of data

The way that the TTC has calculated “Family of Services” ridership and total cost avoidance conflates voluntary use of conventional TTC with scheduled trips that will require riders to use a mix of Wheel-Trans vehicles and the conventional system if the service model becomes mandatory. 

This conflates and misrepresents the estimated cost avoidance and rationale for implementing a policy of mandatory “Family of Services,” or restricting Wheel-Trans users’ ability to book door-to-door Wheel-Trans trips when their conditions are not present. In contrast to the $123.19 million total cost avoidance figure cited in the TTC's 5-Year Accessibility Plan, which conflates both types of trips, TTC staff had estimated in an earlier report that investing in protecting door-to-door trips in 2025 would cost $5.3 million. Yet the 5-Year TTC Accessibility Plan does not reference this figure, or any other estimates of the effect of making “Family of Services” Wheel-Trans trips mandatory.